Bulldogs loss a big win

Well done to the Dogs.

You will be hard pressed to see a more important loss for a football club - it feels strange to say, but this loss could really set-up the season for the Bulldogs.

For them to be more than 6 goals down to Geelong, twice, yet still have the chance in their hands to win at the end of the game, should give them a massive confidence boost for the rest of the season. 

Just as discussed before the game on Friday, the Bulldogs should absolutely think they can take the Cats - that fear of the "super" team should be gone.

Well done too to Aker - he is a mouth, but boy can he play. He is one of those few players that seems to be able to will himself and his team into a contest, and his 300th reminded everyone just why he is a Brownlow medallist, Premiership player, and undoubtedly one of the best of the modern era.

A "boring" season just got a whole lot more interesting

Big test for the Bulldogs tonight

No denying a big game for the Bulldogs tonight. The bookies have Geelong at $1.14 tonight, so they are saying "no chance", and based on the Bulldogs form relative to the Cats this would seem pretty reasonable.

The reason I say this is a big game for them, is that I think their performance tonight, their level of competitiveness, will have a huge impact on the team's underlying confidence and self-belief for the whole season.

The Dogs know they are not in great form, and they know the Cats are red hot. They also know that any hope of premiership success in 2009 needs to go through Geelong.  Get smashed tonight, and the self-belief within the Bulldogs likely disappears. But if they are competitive, if they have significant patches where they control the game, watch the self-belief grow.

The Dogs don't even need to win tonight. Knowing they are down on form, just getting close to the Cats will be enough for the Bulldogs players to think "next time, with a bit more form and a bit more luck, we can take them".

That's why this game is so important to the Bulldogs - winning is not critical, but being genuinely competitive, and not getting blown away, is vital to the Bulldogs season

Caro & Eddie's war getting ridiculous

I know Caroline Wilson and Eddie Macguire don't like each other very much.

But their personal little war is really starting to get silly, topped off by Caro's article today in The Age, where she has claimed that Collingwood is dragging down AFL crowds, wondering "why so many supporters have deserted Collingwood".

Given such a strong and emphatic statement by supposedly Australia's leading AFL columnist, I have undertaken some amazingly in-depth research (I googled Collingwood's 2008 and 2009 fixtures) to validate this very clear position being asserted.

Collingwood figures are apparently down around 14,000 per game on average or almost 100,000 in total.

Now Caro, you surely cannot be serious - or if you are, you are not a serious journalist.

Collingwood opened 2008 with 6 games at the MCG and one at the Gabba, compared to 2009 which has been 4 MCG, 2 Telstra and one at Gabba - so that mean that at this time last year the Pies had had 50% more games at the MCG (kind of important).

Caro tries to counter this by saying that at the MCG crowds are down almost 11,000.

So who have the Pies played? In 2008, they drew Essendon, Carlton, Richmond, Hawthorn, North, and Freo. So 4 of the 6 massive games, and 2 small ones (or 2/3's big, 1/3 small) at the 'G.

2009 - Pies have played Essendon, Geelong, Melbourne and Adelaide. So 2 massive games and 2 small ones - or 50% big, 50% small.

The big games would average 70-80+, the small ones 30-40 - so of course the Pies' MCG crowds are down substantially - they are two "big" games behind for the same time, so its completely reasonable that their average crowds are significantly smaller.

This is really poor journalism. Wilson is allowing her personal issues with Eddie to affect her writing, and this is not on for a journalist of her standing and experience. She needs to be the bigger person and let go of her emotion, as more articles like this will destroy her credibility

I don't get

Umpire contact - fair dinkum, we spend way too much time and effort talking, worrying and complaining about about umpires. In the words of Jeff K "they should be seen and not heard". 

Agreed.

Now, I don't get how Jared Rivers is found guilty and fined of umpire contact for AN ACCIDENTAL CLIP OF HEELS OF AN UMPIRE, yet Max Rooke of Geelong is not guilty when HE DELIBERATELY PULLS ON AN UMPIRE'S SHIRT.

Please, tell me that I am missing something?

Who, with any small skerick of common sense could possibly make a judgement that Rivers did something wrong and should be punished, but Rooke didn't?

Personally, I think both should have been cleared, that would be common sense. And I think that Shaw should have been suspended (as he was). But how Rivers is guilty of something, yet Rooke is not, is completely beyond me.

This is why there is such an issue with Umpires - it is not the umpires themselves - they are just doing the best they can under the instructions they are given. But it is the very instructions they are getting, the way they are told to behave, and the ridiculous decisions of the match review panel, that gets the negative focus on the umpires.

Unfortunately there is no chance of this changing until there is complete regime change at the AFL, and this is not going to happen for some time.

Big couple of weeks ahead for some seasoned coaches

Well, as predicted the Tigers went down to the Bulldogs, so all the media focus this week will be on Terry Wallace. If the Tigers cannot beat Melbourne this weekend then he rightly should be out of job as Melbourne are the worst side to run around for quite some time - if Wallace cannot get the players to lift for this then there are obviously serious issues.

Even if they do win, I think Round 5 is actually make-or-break for Wallace, with the Tigers taking on North on Saturday night at the 'G.

If the Tigers win then they are 2-3 with a trip to Sydney and a chance to go to 50%. If they loose then they are 1-4 and it is curtains for Wallace and the season. The Tigers aren't known for graceful separations with coaches, so if they do go down to North I would almost expect Wallace to hand in his resignation the next morning, if only to short-circuit the circus that will follow.

The Wallace speculation may take the media spotlight off the other guy who also has two massive weeks in front of him - Mick Malthouse. The Pies are up to Brisbane on Friday, followed by Essendon on ANZAC Day. Believe me, Collingwood think they are genuine contenders this year, so these are should/must-win games for anyone with any aspirations for 2009. BUT - both Brisbane and Essendon will be massively "up" for these games - This is Brisbane's big Friday night, nationally televised game, with Voss taking on the Pies for the first time as coach - so they will be ready. And of course Essendon are playing some okay footy and ANZAC Day can always bring special results.

So it is not impossible that the Pies drop both these games and find themselves 1-4 and facing games against North and the Saints (oh-oh). If this scenario plays out, the Collingwood Board will be thinking about Nathan Buckley having publicly put his hand up, they may have seen Wallace already go (so the chase for Buckley will have started), and most importantly they believe Collingwood is much better than a 1-4 team - so the eyes, and maybe the knives, will really be on Mick M.

Disclaimer here is that the Pies love to travel, and Mick loves ANZAC Day, so they of course could also win the next two and be 3-2 and go into North with some real form and confidence. This is probably the more likely scenario, but if does go pear-shaped over the next two games I really think Malthouse could be moved on before mid-season.

Given the topic of this post I probably should talk about Mark Harvey - but Freo are such a rabble I really can't be bothered wasting my words or your time on them.

Cheers

Challengers miss early chances

Good Round 3 so far, with one game still to go today.

I reckon it was a pretty disappointing round for would-be contenders Collingwood and North Melbourne. Both had a chance to send a message that they are fair-dinkum about challenging for a premiership, and both blew it.

The Pies were at least in the game, but blew through bad finishing rather than a poor effort. As Malthouse said, they are not as good as Geelong, and therefore to beat them they have to play a near perfect game. Missing 10 or 11 set shots is not a perfect game. Collingwood dominated play for good periods of Thursday night, but could not capitalise on their weight of possession in the first and third quarters. The Cats were the opposite, scoring heavily for the quarter and a half they had control, and that was the difference.

I think North was more dissappointing than Collingwood, as they had an out of form and injured Hawthorn as an opponent, yet were blown off the park. Laidley is right to be angry at his leaders, for as a group they failed to stand up. The Roos actually had a lot more experience on the ground than the Hawks, so had a chance to exert some physical dominance over the younger bodied Hawks, but again missed this, or ill-directed it when the opportunity arose.

These are the types of games North can't afford if they really want the respect they always say they deserve but don't get.

Injuries bring the big 2 back to the pack

Last year's Grand Finalists are already feeling the sting of injuries. In my strange way of thinking this is good for the competition, as it is definitely bring these two teams back to the field somewhat.

Hawthorn in particularly are suffering. I can't remember the last time Sydney kicked more than 20 goals in a game, which really showed up that the Hawks midfield and backline are struggling. The Hawks have a whole swag of really good players out of the team, and aren't being helped by a few of the stars in the team out of form (e.g. Mitchell, Franklin). The Hawks have North Melbourne this week, who do seem to match up pretty well against them and have split the last 4 home and games between them. So not inconceivable that the Hawks could be 0-3 to start the season.

I don't think this is disasterous for them, but it does start to make a Top 2 finish quite a bit harder and shows how tough this competition really is.

Geelong have less a number, but nonetheless some important injury concerns. Ottens is a big one. Reports today say only it should be only 2-4 weeks for big Brad, but ruckmen and knee injuries are always a concern, especially for one with his history. With Harley and Hunt out of the backline, perennial back-up David Johnson also out, and a whisper Max Rooke may have tweaked a hammy on Saturday, all of a sudden there is just a little weakness to the Cats also.

I think they are still a level above any other team, so no big concerns, but clearly this is not what Bomber Thompson will have wanted so early.

I am really looking forward to the game on Thursday between the Cats and Collingwood. Other than the NAB Cup final, these two have produced some great games over the last couple of years and the Pies have gotten closer to Geelong then anyone other than the Hawks. Collingwood have only played about 3 decent quarters of footy this year, but they have a near full list and you can be sure Malthouse will have them completely primed given the walloping they got a few weeks ago. The Cats too will be eager to reinforce some psychological dominance over the Magpies. And with Ottens out, Collingwood's biggest weakness just got a whole lot better.

So bring on the short week.